About Unaided Awareness: “What upcoming movies are you aware of?” Each week, we ask thousands of people this simple, open-ended question. The results are what we call unaided awareness. It’s unaided because we don’t provide a list of films, artwork, or descriptions. The respondents have to know about the film on their own. Unaided awareness is highly correlated to box office performance. The thinking goes that if someone can name a film off the top of their head, chances are they want to see it. Because it is unaided, the numbers tend to be small but mighty.
The Weekly Unaided Awareness Chart includes any film more than six weeks from release, registering at least 1% unaided awareness (UA). Early signs of UA more than six weeks out often translate to box office success upon release.
Last Sunday, ten films advertised on Super Bowl Sunday with five being during the game itself. The posters below show the time when each spot aired (PST).
A few notes: the game officially began at 3:30 PM. Posters in beige were during the pre-game, while posters in yellow were during the game itself. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING had two spots, one during the pre-game and one after kick-off. JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH was the only 60-second spot, which aired just before the game at 3:22 PM.
Also, there was a spot for CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD, but we are omitting it from this analysis because it aired so close to its theatrical release.
The chart below shows just how impactful a spot during the big game can be. Winners include JURASSIC, which jumped from 2% unaided last week to 5%; LILO & STITCH, which went from 1% to 4%; MISSION, which also climbed to 4%. And HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON soared from bubbling under last week to 3% this week.
Perhaps Sunday’s big winner was THUNDERBOLTS, which also went from 1% to 4%. We’re calling this the winner because it’s the film most in need of a lift. Sure, it charted the same path as LILO, but that film looks more like a sure thing at the box office, whereas there is still uncertainty swirling around THUNDERBOLTS. So, with more to gain and arguably more riding on the $8M investment, we are declaring Thunderbolts* the big winner. It remains to be seen whether Disney can seal the deal between now and its May release.
It’s also worth highlighting the films that didn’t see much of a bounce. SMURFS saw some gains, but not enough to reach 1%. It sits with SINNERS (once again) in the bubbling under category. And despite Brad Pitt introducing the game, F1 couldn’t muster enough unaided to break the bubbling under chart.
Films that didn’t advertise during the game held steady. A MINECRAFT MOVIE and WICKED: FOR GOOD remained at 2%, while SUPERMAN stayed put at 4%.
Let’s also give a call out to FINAL DESTINATION: BLOODLINES, which debuts this week. This somewhat unexpected showing suggests that Warner Bros. may have a successful reboot on its hands. Let’s see what happens when Sony releases the trailer for I KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST SUMMER
Elsewhere, CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD arrives in theaters with 15% unaided, and PADDINGTON IN PERU reached 4%.
Updated: 2/14 with clearer introduction.
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