The Race For The Top Summer Film Is Too Close To Call.

Get ready, folks. We are now less than two months away from the start of the summer box office. We’ve already highlighted the big Memorial Day matchup between LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING, though there’s another box office battle shaping up between JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH and SUPERMAN. JURASSIC opens on the Wednesday before July 4th weekend; SUPERMAN arrives nine days later on July 11th. Both films make a strong case for being the summer’s top movie.

Last year, it was all about animated films. Five of the top 10 films were animated, as were two of the top three summer releases – INSIDE OUT 2 ($653M) and DESPICABLE ME 4 ($361M). This summer, the family offerings are unlikely to reach those heights. There are five family films this summer, with LILO and HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON likely to make the biggest impact. Of the two, LILO is tracking the best. Could LILO win the summer box office?

We certainly can’t rule it out. LILO has a few things going for it, though its release date is perhaps its greatest asset. There are no high-profile family films between A MINECRAFT MOVIE on April 4th and LILO on May 23rd, meaning there will be lots of pent-up demand for parents looking to take their kids to the theater. Things work in LILO’s favor on the other side of release, as well, as it has the family market to itself until DRAGON arrives three weeks later.

So, let’s not rule out a dominating run for LILO. Having said that, there is a nice battle brewing between JURASSIC and SUPERMAN as the two are bobbing and weaving like prizefighters for tracking domination. A week ago, SUPERMAN topped all four of The Quorum’s key metrics: awareness, interest, theater, and fee. Today, the Man of Steel sits atop none of them. Let’s take a closer look.

Awareness:
SUPERMAN (dark yellow) still has a 3-point lead over JURASSIC (light yellow), but JURASSIC is trending up after its 60-second spot during the Super Bowl. Both films, however, are trailing SNOW WHITE, which currently sits at 70% awareness.

Interest, Location, Lee:
The two films are neck and neck in these three metrics. JURASSIC has a 1-point lead in interest (SNOW WHITE may be tops in awareness, but it ranks 18th among all films being tracked by The Quorum with 44% interest).

The two films have identical scores for location, with 55% of respondents saying they would watch each movie in a theater instead of at home. JURASSIC has a slight advantage at the decimal level. On the fee side, 64% said they would pay to watch JURASSIC vs. 63% for SUPERMAN.

Except for awareness, we would consider the two films tied in the other metrics. As you can see, it’s a very close race. Perhaps historicals will add more clarity. The chart below shows the total domestic gross for the Jurassic and Batman/Superman titles since 2005 when the current DCU era launched.

Note that at The Quorum, we usually speak in terms of opening weekend rather than total gross. In this case, we’re focusing on total for two reasons. First, we’re curious to know which film will be the summer’s top earner. Second, JURASSIC opens on a Wednesday, meaning its Friday-Sunday grosses will be lower than if it opened on a traditional three-day weekend. That makes it harder to make a comparison between the two films.

The historicals reveal a few things. Both properties are capable of putting up numbers north of half a billion domestic. Jurassic grosses have been trending down, though the upcoming film has an all-new cast, which could inject some new box office life into the franchise.

As for the Batman and Superman films, the Caped Crusader has performed better at the box office than Kal-El. The highest grossing solo Superman film is MAN OF STEEL at $291M, whereas the last three Batman films cracked $350M. Things might be different this time around. As the first new release in the revamped DCU, SUPERMAN will undoubtedly get one of the biggest marketing pushes from Warner Bros. We’ve already seen it in action. SUPERMAN dominated the film conversation through December and January, on the heels of its trailer launch.

The picture that emerges is one of two legendary, newly revitalized franchises. Which will win the summer? Right now, they’re neck and neck. And could LILO be an animated surprise? We won’t rule that out, either.