Who doesn’t love a great box office battle, whether it’s BARBENHEIMER, GLICKED, or SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 vs. MUFASA: THE LION KING, which, oddly enough, didn’t generate a catchy portmanteau of its own. We have another matchup coming this Memorial Day weekend when the live action LILO & STITCH goes up against MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING. Which film is best positioned to win the weekend? Let’s take a closer look.
As always, the data we’re presenting represents a moment in time, more specifically, today. Tracking numbers change, and with more than four months before release, things could look very different in late May.
THE HISTORICALS
Let’s begin with LILO. Over the past twenty years, eight PG-rated films have opened on Memorial Day weekend. Without adjusting for ticket price, THE LITTLE MERMAID and ALADDIN are the top two, both opening above $90M (below, left). After that, the remaining films debuted to less than $60M. The average is $51M, and the median is $41M.
Since some of these are older titles, adjusting for inflation is not a bad idea (bottom, right). Interestingly, ALADDIN jumps ahead of THE LITTLE MERMAID with $108M. Now there are four titles with openings above $60. The average jumps to $61M, and the median rises to $54M.
In thinking about how LILO might land relative to these historical, it might be tempting to say that the film is at an advantage given that it’s a known property. But the same can be said for ALICE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS and THE GARFIELD MOVIE, which sit at the bottom of this list.
What is true, however, is that the two films at the top are live action versions of Disney animated classics. In other words, the Mouse House knows how to open a legacy property to big numbers on Memorial Day. That alone bodes well for LILO & STITCH, suggesting an opening above the average of $61M is possible, if not likely.
As for MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE, it seems odd to say this about a franchise now eight films strong, but the MISSION series is not one of the higher-grossing tentpoles. Six of the seven MISSION films opened in the $45M – $65M range (GHOST PROTOCOL had a very unusual launch in 425 theaters before expanding with the following weekend, thus the $13M opening). But they were well below other tentpoles of its era. JURASSIC films open above $100M. FAST & FURIOUS can get to $100M, or, often very close. Same for PIRATE OF THE CARIBBEAN and TRANSFORMERS.
As you can see above, the last three have been remarkably consistent, each opening within $6M of each other. Could the upcoming FINAL represent an uptick at the box office for the MISSION franchise? Sure. But if DEAD RECKONING PART 1 couldn’t improve on FALLOUT when Tom Cruise was at the height of his post-TOP GUN: MAVERICK box office power, it’s fair to think that FINAL is poised to open near or possibly below the $55M-$60M range of the most recent entries.
The historicals combine to paint a picture of LILO with a good chance of opening above $60M and FINAL performing in line or slightly lower than the MISSION range of $55M —$65M. It seems like a wash unless LILO can approach the performance of MERMAID and ALADDIN (more on that below).
TRACKING DATA
As for tracking data, let’s begin with the artwork. When asked to grade posters on a scale from A+ (“makes me want to see the film”) to F (“makes me NOT want to see the film”), survey respondents gave LILO a grade of A versus B for FINAL. In fact, LILO was the 10th highest-scoring poster of 2024.
Both are teaser posters, meaning more artwork will follow. However, the A grade for LILO indicates some built-in excitement for the film.
When we compare the tracking data side-by-side, we give a slight advantage to LILO. In terms of awareness (left, below), LILO (dark yellow) has a solid advantage over MISSION (light yellow). On paper, things look like a draw regarding interest (right), with both films at 54%. Upon closer inspection, we see that a tie is a big win for LILO. That’s because, on average, interest in animated films is six to eight points lower than tentpoles, depending on the distance from release. That’s because the target audience for animated films is kids, which are harder to track.
So, head-to-head, let’s give the advantage to LILO. But just how big can LILO get? And what are the chances that FINAL breaks out beyond the traditional confines of a MISSION film?
LILO & STITCH VS. THE LITTLE MERMAID
Let’s start with LILO. The chart below maps LILO (dark yellow) against THE LITTLE MERMAID (light yellow). At the same point, awareness for LILO is quite a bit higher at 59% vs. 54%.
And on the interest side, the films are essentially tied.
Again, the lower overall interest for animated films is worth pointing out. Interest in MERMAID was 53% on the day it opened. To give that some context, MERMAID had the 11th largest opening of the past two years, but 53% interest ranks it 44th among all the films over that same period.
THE FINAL RECKONING VS. DEAD RECKONING PART 1
As for FINAL, there are no huge signs of a break out, though there are no clear signs that it will underperform either.
Awareness for FINAL (dark yellow) is 14 points higher than DEAD (light yellow). The higher number could be due to residual awareness from the last film in the series, which came out just two years ago, whereas DEAD arrived five years and a full pandemic after FALLOUT.
On the interest side, the two films are about tied. Taken together, you can see that FINAL doesn’t look so bad. Could the new film open above $60M? Sure. At this point, it seems like a real possibility.
So where does that leave things? Memorial looks like it’s going to be a very competitive weekend with no clear, bet-the-house winner. At the moment, The Quorum gives a slight advantage to LILO simply because the animated films have a higher ceiling on Memorial Day than the MISSION films. It’s also tracking well against MERMAID. The good news is that both are looking very healthy.
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