Can Q1 Of 2025 Thrive With Few Tentpoles And Lots Of Originals? Let’s Hope So.

The first quarter of 2024 was quite remarkable. In particular, the month of March gave us DUNE PART TWO ($83M opening), GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE ($80M), KUNG FU PANDA 4 ($58M), and GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE ($45M). When it’s all said and done, all four are likely to be among the 20 highest grossing films of the year. 

While not as lucrative, January gave us MEAN GIRLS ($29M), and February delivered BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE ($29M). That’s six titles from the first three months of the year to open near or above $30M. 

On the heels of a record-breaking Thanksgiving and a holiday season anchored by MUFASA: THE LION KING and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3, we should enjoy this moment because the box office is going to slow down considerably after the new year. 

Unlike last year, when there were several big titles, the first quarter of 2024 has only two tentpoles: CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD and SNOW WHITE. SINNERS, featuring the always compelling pairing of Ryan Coogler and Micheal B. Jordan, will no doubt get a major push from Warner Bros., but currently, tracking for the film is softer than one would expect despite the fact that a trailer has been out since September. Even though awareness is only at 17%, we still have faith that the numbers will turn around. 

But beyond those three, don’t hold your breath for the volume of hits we enjoyed in January, February, and March this year. 

Could there be a few unexpected breakouts? Sure. DEN OF THIEVES: PANTERA, FLIGHT RISK, THE WOLF MAN, or THE MONKEY could draw a crowd, but the upside for each is modest. Currently, none look likely to get near the $29M openings for MEAN GIRLS or ONE LOVE. So, brace yourself. While we celebrate the box office windfall we’re experiencing now, the narrative may turn gloomier come January. 

The biggest problem is that very few people know about the winter releases. Nine January to March films have awareness at or below 20% despite having trailers out (yes, SINNERS is among that group). This doesn’t even include BETTER MAN or PRESENCE, which are December releases that expand in January. Those also have awareness below 20%.

(To be fair, Paramount just released the trailer for NOVOCAINE, so awareness may rise in the coming days, though it’s unlikely to add enough to lift it over 20%.) 

It’s not hard to see why these films are struggling to build awareness. Almost all of these are originals. Yes, there’s DEN OF THIEVES; PANTERA and PADDINGTON IN PERU, but compared to CAPTAIN AMERICA and SNOW WHITE these are minor properties. 

And that’s the real problem. When it’s all said and done, the ten top films of 2024 will be sequels or established IP. You have to drop all the way down to IF – currently the 19th highest grossing film of the year – to find a true original. 

There’s no doubt that the goodwill we’re all feeling about the current state of the box office is infectious. But let’s not overlook the fact that the box office is still overwhelmingly driven by sequels, prequels, and reimaginations. 

So, yes, year-over-year, the upcoming batch of originals won’t be able to stack up against DUNE, GHOSTBUSTERS, KONG, GODZILLA, KUNG FU PANDA, or MEAN GIRLS from the spring of 2023. But let’s hope that we are surprised. Wouldn’t it be great if one of these films broke out? The box office is healthy. But we would all feel much better about the business if an original or two struck a chord with audiences.