Can F1 Shake Off A Sluggish Start?

When Apple released the trailer for F1 on July 7th, it caught many of us at The Quorum off guard. Three weeks earlier, it was reported that Warner Bros picked up distribution rights for the Apple Original Film, and the film was given a June 27th release date. But no one expected a trailer to follow just a few weeks after the announcement, mainly because the studios have largely abandoned long-lead marketing campaigns in the post-pandemic era. So, it was a welcome surprise to see a trailer drop nearly a full year before release.

On paper, F1 looks like a winner. Not only does it star Brad Pitt, one of the last great movie stars, but it’s helmed by Joseph Kosinski, who directed TOP GUN: MAVERICK. And in a curated, early campaign, all signs point to a winner.

That’s why seeing the rather muted response to the film on The Quorum is so surprising. To be perfectly clear, a soft start in no way means the film is in trouble. The film is still 11 months away from release. This campaign is in its infancy. At the same time, some signals we’d expect to see in the data simply aren’t there.

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

F1 belongs to the Tentpole group, meaning it has a production budget of over $100M. Other recent films in the group include FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA, KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, and TWISTERS. The median opening weekend for a tentpole is $58M.

At the moment, the scores for F1 are well below the group average at the same distance from release. Actually, that’s not entirely true. We add movies to The Quorum once they are within six months of release. We make an exception if a film’s marketing campaign begins before the six-month mark—case in point: F1.

Very few films have been added this far out—so few that we don’t really have group averages at 11 months out. That means the scores for F1 are being compared to the group average for films at six months out. It’s not a meaningful distinction, but one worth noting.

Looking at the numbers, awareness for F1 is at 21%, which is half the group average of 41%. Interest sits at 37% versus the average of 50%. F1 fares better in the theater and fee metrics.

To be fair, the numbers for F1 have been on the rise. Awareness has climbed from 18% on the day of the trailer to 21% today.

Interest is also up from 36% to 37%. Both scores may continue to rise in the coming weeks. However, despite these gains, there is a wide gulf between the F1 scores and the group averages.

What’s most telling is that F1 has failed to register much unaided awareness. It has yet to appear on our Weekly Unaided Awareness Chart. Both CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD and GLADIATOR II, two films that also released trailers over the past few weeks, appear on the most recent unaided chart.

For those unfamiliar, this chart highlights any film more than six weeks out that registers at least 1% unaided. As for F1, it’s not even close to appearing on the chart. It’s not as though it’s just missing the 1% threshold. There is almost no unaided awareness at all for the film.

What does this mean in terms of box office? The table shows all June releases with a budget of over $100M since 2013. It excludes animated films. The average opening is $71M, while the median is $58M. Notice, however, that the films at the top of the list are sequels or from existing franchises. WORLD WAR Z, at $66M, has the largest opening for an original.

The average opening and median for originals, in pink, drops to $38M and $30M. These are the comps for F1. In a best case, we would consider F1 to have an opening weekend ceiling near $65M. Most likely, it would land near $40M. Given the soft start, an opening below $40M is a possibility.

Let’s repeat. The campaign is just starting. But these numbers suggest that the initial trailer drop was not especially effective in lifting awareness or interest. There are examples of films getting off to a slow start before accelerating before release. Hopefully, that’s the case for F1.