The Quorum

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER has been tops in awareness for ten weeks. That’s about to change.

When AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER reached the top of the awareness chart ten weeks ago after JURASSIC WORLD DOMINION opened in theaters, we knew it would sit there for a while. We also knew that at some point, BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER, arriving in theaters a month before AVATAR, would eventually climb to the summit. 

That day hasn’t arrived just yet, but it’s close. 

As noted here, if both WAKANDA and AVATAR open above $100M, as expected, it will give 2022 exactly eight films with triple digits debuts. With all due respect to BLACK ADAM, these two are the year-end box office anchors. It will be fun to see how high the numbers for these two films climb in the coming weeks and months. 

Since the release of the WAKANDA trailer on July 23rd (“T” in dark yellow circle), awareness for the film has climbed 11 points. And it hasn’t plateaued. We are over a month removed from that trailer, and awareness is still rising, which means the campaign is in full effect. 

The numbers for AVATAR have also been on the rise too, though at a slower clip. Frankly, it’s impressive that they’ve been rising at all, given that the trailer was released over three months ago (“T” in light yellow circle). 

Both films are already in rarified air with 65% and 62% awareness. So far this year, only eight titles had awareness above 60% at release. Only two reached 70%. With plenty of runway to go, it’s possible that WAKANDA and AVATAR will cross that 70% mark. 

While AVATAR has an advantage (at least for now) in awareness, WAKANDA has consistently scored better when it comes to interest. After briefly reaching 6.8 last week, WAKANDA currently sits at 6.7 versus 6.5 for AVATAR. 

Among 2022 films, only two have reached an interest score of 7.0. 

I know what you’re asking. Have any films reached 70% awareness AND 7.0 in interest? The answer is no. And if it’s going to happen this year, it has to be one of these two. 

That’s not to say that it hasn’t ever happened, just not in 2022. The only film to reach the coveted 70%/7.0 threshold was SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. And it did so in convincing style. It arrived in theaters with 73% awareness and an interest score of 7.2. 

It’s going to be a fun few months watching these two films. When will WAKANDA pass AVATAR? Will they cross 70% awareness and/or 7.0 interest? We can’t wait to find out.

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