The Quorum

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE And DESPICABLE ME 4 Will Be Big. TWISTERS Could Give Exhibition A July Trifecta.

Going into the summer box office season, we all knew the back half would be stronger than the first. Historically, there have been four key summer windows: the first weekend in May, Memorial Day, the mid-June Pixar corridor, and July 4th weekend.

It was clear that THE FALL GUY wasn’t going to kick off the summer the way Marvel has over the past 17 years. It was also clear that Memorial Day looked soft with FURIOSA and GARFIELD. INSIDE OUT 2 holds great promise in mid-June. Still, July looks to have the most upside for theatrical, with DESPICABLE ME 4 anchoring Independence Day and DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE arriving three weeks later.

Aside from those two, a third, surprisingly expensive film could lead to a July trifecta. While not expected to reach the same heights as DESPICABLE and DEADPOOL, TWISTERS could add to the desperately needed July box office windfall. With a surprisingly hefty price tag of $200M, how is TWISTERS looking?

First, some context. As noted above, there are four big summer corridors. After July 4th, opening weekends tend to drop off. Popcorn fatigue typically sets in by late July, with people craving something more substantial after months of guns, explosions, and car chases. Or, at least, that’s what used to happen.

We may also be arriving at a point where late July is the new box office hot spot. BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER opened on July 21st last year, and DEADPOOL is set to arrive on July 26th. Could the balance of power be shifting to the back end of the summer? That remains to be seen. DEADPOOL was slated to kick off the summer in May but shifted to July due to strike-related delays. We should probably wait to see what happens next summer with THE FANTASTIC FOUR (7/25/25) before we declare late July as the sexy distribution corridor.

But if the back half of the summer is the new first half, then that bodes well for TWISTERS. As is always the case, we begin by looking at the box office universe for the film. This chart includes July, PG-13 films with a budget above $125M, and it excludes superhero movies. BARBIE is the outlier, with an opening of $162M. Beyond that, only one title opened above $70M, while the median opening is $42M.

Can TWISTERS open above the median of $42M? Could it reach the high end of the chart with an opening north of $60M? Let’s take a look at the numbers. For this analysis, we’re using FAST X ($68M), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING ($55M), and THE FALL GUY ($28M) as comps.

Beginning with awareness, 47% of people know about TWISTERS (dark yellow). That’s just below FAST (light yellow) at the same distance from release. It’s also well above MISSION (brown) and FALL (beige).

Things look even better when looking at interest. Currently, interest in TWISTERS (dark blue) is identical to FAST (light blue) at 55%. TWISTERS is 3 points ahead of MISSION (black) and 7 points higher than FALL (teal).

Combined, these metrics paint a picture of a film that is on a path to open near $55M with the potential to reach $60M. That would be a nice start for the TWISTERS, and it would put it towards the high end of the box office universe listed above. Of course, that’s just where it is today at six weeks out. The projection will fluctuate based on the tracking data in the final stretch (weekly box office projections are available to subscribers).

If these numbers hold, TWISTERS would give exhibition a lot to be thankful for this July aside from just DESPICABLE and DEADPOOL.

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