The Quorum

Weekly Unaided Awareness Chart – RED ONE Debuts, But Where Are The Other Q4 Tentpoles?

The Weekly Unaided Awareness Chart includes any film more than six weeks from release, registering at least 1% unaided awareness (UA). This metric is highly correlated to opening weekend gross. Early signs of UA more than six weeks out often translate to box office success upon release.

With the summer box office winding down, we’re seeing fewer films on the Weekly Unaided Awareness Chart. Only four films beyond six weeks out are registering at least 1% unaided. We likely won’t see an increase until the big Q4 titles juice their campaigns. 

Many big holiday titles already have trailers, including MUFASA: THE LION KING, WICKED, and NOSFERATU. Surprisingly, MUFASA appeared on the chart for three weeks in June but hasn’t returned since. WICKED has come and gone several times; it’s off the chart this week. And NOSFERATU has yet to appear on the chart. All three will need another marketing push to get them above 1%. 

Speaking of Q4 tentpoles, Amazon’s big November film, RED ONE, debuts with 1% unaided. We’ll see if it stays for a second week or follows the path of SMILE 2, which debuted last week but quickly fell off. And, thanks to the just-released trailer, it wouldn’t be shocking to see GLADIATOR 2 return to the chart next week. 

Elsewhere, DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE is the top film for the third week in a row, though unaided slipped from 11% to 10%. This led to a slight decrease in The Quorum’s film opening weekend forecast for DEADPOOL. DESPICABLE ME 4 arrives in theaters with unaided of 9%. 

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