Tracking Update: How Does DUNE: PART TWO Look Today On The Eve of Its Release?

DUNE: PART TWO is now just over 24 hours away from arriving in theaters. Reviews have been stellar, and anticipation is high. With that in mind, this is an opportune time to take another look at the tracking.

As a reminder, we have been comping DUNE against FAST X, which opened to $68M and TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS, which came in a bit lower at $61M.

As noted in our previous updates, DUNE was lagging behind the two comps through most of its tracking run. It’s worth noting that the final fielding for DUNE will be tomorrow, so there is still one more opportunity for these numbers to go higher. Currently, awareness for the DUNE (dark yellow) is nearly identical to the comps at 60%. At opening, FAST X was also at 60%, while TRANSFORMERS was at 61%.

Throughout its run, DUNE struggled with interest. In our report in late January, interest for DUNE was at 48%, well behind the two comps. By February 7th, interest had climbed to 51%. The gap was closing.

Today, after an impressive upward climb, interest sits at 57%. It is now higher than FAST X (53%) and TRANSFORMERS (54%) on their day of release. In January, DUNE looked like it was on a path to an opening in the $50M-$55M range. Earlier this month, it looked like it had a shot at an opening north of $60M. Today, thanks to these big gains in interest, tracking suggests DUNE should be able to open north of $70M. Based on the tomorrow’s tracking, it could go even higher.

Those who closely watch The Quorum’s interest charts may notice something odd in the numbers for DUNE. At the moment, the film only ranks 9th among all the films being tracked by The Quorum. Why is that? With a $70M+ opening on the horizon, shouldn’t DUNE rank higher?

A closer look at the demos explains why interest for DUNE isn’t bigger. As you can see below, interest among men is much higher than for women. Both men under and over 35 have 68% interest in the film. The numbers are much lower for women. The overall interest number is a composite of the four demos, meaning the overall number can be suppressed without widespread appeal.

That’s not necessarily a problem if the core demos really want to see the film. Take a look at the demo breakdown for BARBIE. The overall interest at opening was 49%, well below the 57% for DUNE. In the case of BARBIE, interest among women under 35 was a massive 72%, while men over 35 were at only 33%. The low interest among men pulled down the overall number, but it didn’t matter since interest in the core demo was so strong.

Demographic data is available to subscribers, but it is good to be mindful that interest may be lower than expected for films that don’t have broad demographic appeal. In the case of DUNE, we could be talking about an even bigger opening if interest among women was higher. But as it is, interest among men is enough to lift DUNE to what could be one of the largest openings of the year.