Two weeks ago, we took a look at the tracking for DUNE: PART TWO. At the time, DUNE was lagging behind FAST X and TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS, which opened to $68M and $61M, respectively.
Even though it was trailing the two comps, we were optimistic about DUNE because its numbers were on the rise. Given that DUNE is poised to be the first big tentpole of the year, it merits another check-in.
Has the film’s upward momentum continued? Has it reached, or even surpassed, the tracking numbers for FAST and TRANSFORMERS?
Over the past two weeks, DUNE has continued to rise. It looks far healthier than it did the last time we checked in. Back then, awareness was at 44%. It has added 10 points over the past two weeks and now sits at 54%. That sandwiches it between FAST X (light yellow) and TRANSFORMERS (brown).
Truth be told, awareness was never our concern. We felt confident that Warner Bros. would do what it needed to ensure people knew about the film. Our concern has been on the interest side. Two weeks ago, DUNE trailed the two comps by a fairly wide margin. As you can see below, DUNE is in a much better position. It is up from 48% two weeks ago to 51% today. While it still trails the comps at the same distance from release, it has made great strides in closing the gap.
On top of that, the rate of acceleration is quite impressive. Interest for FAST (light blue) and TRANSFORMERS (black) declined in the final two weeks. While that’s always possible, a decline in the home stretch would represent a sharp turnaround from its current trajectory.
In late January, it looked like DUNE would struggle to match the $60M+ openings for the comps. Today, that no longer looks like an impossibility. And if it continues on the upward climb, we could be looking at an opening north of $70M.
As always, stay tuned!