This Week’s Long Lead Tracking Grid: MADAME WEB Takes A Tumble

With AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM on track to open between $30M and $35M across Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the sad superhero saga of 2023 comes to an end. While there are few superhero films scheduled for 2024, we can point to DEADPOOL 3 as a hope that next year will be better than this year.

Before we get to DEADPOOL, we’ll have to get through MADAME WEB, which is shaping up to be another superhero misfire. WEB is two months away from release, and yet awareness for the film sits at 26% (dark yellow). That’s well below MORBIUS (brown) and THE FLASH (light yellow) at the same distance from release.

And that 26% awareness reflects any bounce WEB received from the trailer drop last month. As a result, WEB slips from “Average” to the “Below Average” bucket in out weekly Long Lead Tracking Grid.

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The Long Lead Tracking Report looks at films more than six weeks from release. Each film is given anywhere from 1 to 5 diamonds based on how the film is perforn The Quorum’s main tracking metrics: Awareness, Interest, In A Theater, and Pay To See.

Diamonds are assigned based on how well the film is tracking compared to other films in the same group at the same distance from release.

Films are then sorted into one of five buckets, from “High End” to “Low End,” based on the total number of stars across the four metrics as follows: 

Diamond (“Low End”). 7-8 Diamonds (“Below Average”), 9-14 Diamond (“Average”), 15-18 Diamonds (“Strong”), 19-20 Diamonds (“High End”)

You’ll notice a column with numbers in red. This represents the average opening weekend for the film’s group. Titles that sit at the highest buckets (“High End” and “Strong”) are well positioned to open higher than that number in red. Conversely, titles at the lower buckets (“Below Average” and “Low End”) are tracking to open below the number in red.