Can THE COLOR PURPLE Gross More Than AQUAMAN? It’s Not An Impossibility.

Let’s face it: WONKA is everywhere. It became just the second film of the year after THE LITTLE MERMAID to reach 70% awareness. AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM has also reached a high level of saturation, with 64% awareness.

Those two titles are the shiny box office baubles that everyone is focused on this holiday season. But, as the holiday festivities wind down, don’t be surprised if THE COLOR PURPLE, opening Christmas Day, is the big box office story. It has the makings of an under-the-radar hit.

As we first reported in early August, Warner Bros. is set to dominate the holiday season with WONKA, AQUAMAN, and PURPLE. Five months ago, you wouldn’t be blamed for thinking that AQUAMAN was the film to beat. Today, with Christmas just around the corner, it’s not hard to imagine AQUAMAN having the lowest total gross of the three WB titles. WONKA is making a solid case to be the highest grossing December release, while PURPLE is emerging as a contender for the #2 spot.

What makes us say that? PURPLE belongs to the medium group, meaning we believe it has a production budget between $50M and $100M. The average opening weekend for medium films is $22M. Currently, PURPLE is performing well above the average for all medium titles at the same distance from release.

Take a look at the metrics. Awareness for PURPLE is at 47%. The average for the group is 40%. Interest in PURPLE sits at 50%, two points higher than the average of 48%, while 45% of people say they want to watch the film in a theater (as opposed to at home) versus the average of 42%. Finally, 59% of people say they would pay to see the film against the average of 57%.

It’s easy to get distracted by the ubiquity of WONKA or the big budget of AQUAMAN. But keep an eye on PURPLE. This one has surprise written all over it.