The Quorum

This Week’s Long Lead Tracking Grid: DUNE: PART TWO and FURIOSA struggle against tentpole comps.

Talk about impressive debuts. BEETLEJUICE 2 debuts with a perfect score of 20 diamonds in the “High End” bucket. IF arrives in the “average” bucket, while CABRINI launches in the “Low End.”

DRIVE AWAY DOLLS is beginning to show some life, rising from “Below Average” to “Average.”

Meanwhile, two big tentpoles, DUNE: PART TWO and FURIOSA, sit at the bottom of the chart. How can that be? It has to do with the fact that these films are in the Tentpole group, meaning they are being comped against some very large titles. DUNE and FURIOSA are tracking quite a bit lower than those comps.

Hopefully, that will change once the campaigns for these two films ramp up. But for now, they sit in the “Low End.”

The Long Lead Tracking Report looks at films more than six weeks from release. Each film is given anywhere from 1 to 5 diamonds based on how the film is performing in The Quorum’s main tracking metrics: Awareness, Interest, In A Theater, and Pay To See.

Diamonds are assigned based on how well the film is tracking compared to other films in the same group at the same distance from release.

Films are then sorted into one of five buckets, from “High End” to “Low End,” based on the total number of stars across the four metrics as follows:

Diamond (“Low End”). 7-8 Diamonds (“Below Average”), 9-14 Diamond (“Average”), 15-18 Diamonds (“Strong”), 19-20 Diamonds (“High End”)

You’ll notice a column with numbers in red. This represents the average opening weekend for the film’s group. Titles that sit at the highest buckets (“High End” and “Strong”) are well positioned to open higher than that number in red. Conversely, titles at the lower buckets (“Below Average” and “Low End”) are tracking to open below the number in red.

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