People Want To Watch RED ONE. But Do They Want To Watch It In A Theater?

Let’s give Amazon and MGM credit. They have done a terrific job building awareness for RED ONE, which is opening in theaters this weekend. Awareness for the film is at 61%, placing it 5th among all the films currently being tracked by The Quorum behind MUFASA: THE LION KING and the three big end-of-month behemoths (GLADIATOR II, WICKED, MOANA 2).

Interest in the film is decent, at 51%. We would like to see that a bit higher, but it’s not awful.

With a reported budget of $250M, RED ONE belongs to the Tentpole group. Other non-sequel films in this group include BARBIE, ARGYLLE, and NAPOLEON. The average opening for a non-sequel tentpole is $46M. The median is $59M.

The numbers below show how RED ONE is tracking against the group average at the same distance from release. For example, as noted above, awareness (yellow) for the film is at 61%. That is slightly higher than the average of 58%. At 51%, interest (blue) is lower than the average of 54%.

Things go sideways when we look at the other metrics. Location (red) measures whether people want to watch the film in a theater or at home. For RED ONE, 46% say they would watch it in a theater. That’s quite a bit lower than the average of 54%.

Fee (green) measures whether people would pay to watch the movie, either in a theater, PVOD, or a streaming service. Only 57% say they would be willing to pay to see RED ONE, significantly lower than the average of 68%.

Combined, this paints a picture of a film with high awareness and decent interest, but one that many people will wait to watch at home.

Tracking aside, RED ONE feels like a streaming movie. It’s not just because it comes from Amazon, though that’s certainly a big part. It’s because audiences can pick up clues. Consider the stars. Chris Evans has now starred in three straight streaming titles. PAIN HUSTLERS and THE GREY MAN were for Netflix, and GHOSTED played on Apple TV+. None got any meaningful theatrical releases.

Could it be that audiences now associate the actor with streaming titles? Dwayne Johnson’s not immune to it either. While BLACK ADAM got a full theatrical release, RED NOTICE was a Netflix release.

And none have been especially well received. Aside from Johnson’s JUNGLE CRUISE, neither actor has starred in a film that scored above 50% on Rotten Tomatoes since 2020. Add in poor reviews, and it’s easy to see why audiences are willing to wait to watch RED ONE at home.

That may not necessarily be a bad thing. With a release date two weeks before Thanksgiving, RED ONE has the opportunity to get both a theatrical run and still make it to Amazon Prime before Christmas—the ultimate double dip. So, while RED ONE will not recoup its $250M budget from theatrical, streaming could go a long way towards closing that gap, especially if it becomes an annual holiday favorite.