This week we welcome INSIDE OUT 2 to The Quorum. With a June 14th release date, INSIDE can’t arrive soon enough. As noted above, WISH is struggling in awareness and interest, and the next Pixar film, ELIO, due in March, isn’t exactly lighting up tracking either.
Since 2010, Pixar has consistently mixed originals (dark pink) with sequels (light pink). As you can see below, the sequels have outperformed the originals. Also, notice that INSIDE arrives after a lengthy run of six originals in a row (we consider LIGHTYEAR a spin-off rather than a sequel). It will be seven in a row when you factor in ELIO. INSIDE will be the first sequel since TOY STORY 4 in 2019.
The first INSIDE OUT opened to $90M in 2015. Can the sequel open above $100M? So far, the numbers are encouraging. This time around, we’re comparing INSIDE (dark yellow) to WISH (light yellow), ELEMENTAL (brown, $30M) and MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (beige, $107M). Awareness for INSIDE is exactly the same as MINIONS at the same distance from release.
With 50% interest, INSIDE (dark blue) is just a hair behind MINIONS (teal) and nicely ahead of both ELEMENTAL (black) and WISH (light blue). Looking at the two charts together, it would be fair to say the INSIDE has a shot at a $100M opening.
That may be the signal we need that Disney is back in the animation game. Now, if it can just make it till June.