With a week to go before arriving in theaters, can ELVIS open above $30M? With awareness stalling, ELVIS will need its numbers to significantly improve in the next seven days if it hopes to reach that mark.
Why $30M? ELVIS belongs to the “Original – High” group, which also includes recent titles like HOUSE OF GUCCI, THE NORTHMAN, FREE GUY, MOONFALL, and THE LAST DUEL. These are mid-budget (at least $50M) films that are not sequels or based on well known IP. This group also includes THE LOST CITY, which holds the record for the largest opening weekend for the group with $30M. LOST recently crossed $100M in total. Warner Bros. would undoubtedly like to see ELVIS top LOST.
What ELVIS doesn’t want to do is open with numbers like HOUSE OF GUCCI. That film debuted to $14M on its way to a total gross of $54M. Unfortunately, ELVIS is tracking more like GUCCI than LOST.
Looking at awareness over time, over the past few weeks, ELVIS (brown) has been tracking between LOST (dark yellow) and GUCCI (light yellow). And while awareness for ELVIS has been steadily climbing in recent weeks, in a troubling sign, it has stalled at 45% with only a week to go before release. This is precisely the time when awareness should be soaring.
The situation is even more disconcerting when we look at interest. LOST had an interest score of 6.1 when it opened, and GUCCI was at 5.8. But, ELVIS is only at 5.5. On the plus side, the interest score for ELVIS hasn’t stalled like awareness, but it’s on the low side for a $30M opening.
We have seen awareness and interest scores take off in the final week, which may be the case for ELVIS. But heading into the final stretch, a $30M opening looks like a stretch.