Disney Returns To Early May With THUNDERBOLTS*. How Is It Tracking?

You have to feel bad for THE FALL GUY. Last year, the Ryan Gosling – Emily Blunt actioner was the first non-superhero film since 2006 to occupy the first weekend in May, the commonly accepted start of the summer box office season. When Disney pushed DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE from May 3rd to July 18th, Universal swooped in and moved FALL into that slot.

The film debuted at $28M, which was certainly soft relative to its reported $125M budget. However, the media quickly labeled the movie a disaster relative to the superhero films that previously occupied that frame. Sure, it wasn’t a great opening. But it was also very unfair to compare it to Marvel films with built-in audiences and budgets north of $200M.

For those who miss their early May comic book characters, we have good news for you. For 2025, Disney has reclaimed the summer start with THUNDERBOLTS*. And by the looks of things, Disney is not messing around. We got a trailer and poster for THUNDERBOLTS* a full seven months before its release. These kinds of long-lead campaigns are becoming increasingly uncommon.

At The Quorum, it’s been clear for some time that there is already some level of interest in the film. Over the past two months, the film has registered a small, though consistent level of unaided awareness. It never reached the 1% threshold required to make it onto our Weekly Unaided Awareness Chart (nor would it have qualified since, until this week, the film had yet to be added to The Quorum). Despite not reaching 1%, we always notice when a movie over six months out registers any unaided. In all likelihood, it will debut on that chart next week.

Looking at the chart above, many Marvel titles grossed over $100M on the first weekend in May. All of them, however, were sequels. The two non-sequels – THOR and IRON MAN – opened over a decade ago. In other words, Disney usually uses this frame for established Marvel properties.

In that light, we might expect THUNDERBOLTS* to open south of $100M. We’re using other non-sequel superhero films, including two DC properties, as comps for this analysis. BLACK ADAM opened to $67M, THE FLASH to $55M, and MADAME WEB debuted to $15M.

So how does THUNDERBOLTS* look now that it’s been added to The Quorum? It arrives on tracking with 29% awareness (dark yellow). That is well ahead of MADAME (beige) but lower than FLASH (brown) and ADAM (light yellow).

On the interest side, THUNDERBOLTS* (navy blue) still trails FLASH (black) and ADAM (light blue), though the three films are very close together.

This would suggest an opening in near (or slightly below) the $55M – $65M range for ADAM and FLASH.

But there’s one important caveat. THUNDERBOLTS* was added to The Quorum on the same day the trailer and poster were released.

We know that marketing material has a shelf life, the length of which depends on its virality. In other words, not everyone learns about a film the day a trailer is dropped. It takes time to reach the masses. Therefore, it’s possible (if not likely) that the THUNDERBOLTS* numbers will be quite a bit higher the next time it is fielded on The Quorum.

Having said that, we can consider these numbers as a floor for the film. The numbers you see most likely reflect where the film stood before the trailer came out. So, let’s sit tight and see where it goes from here.