Can SMILE 2 Top The First SMILE?

Paramount did just about everything right with the original SMILE movie. Who can forget the folks the studio hired to sit in stadiums nationwide with maniacal, dead-eyed smiles? It became a clever viral sensation that propelled the film to a surprise $23M opening.

SMILE was also the rare horror film that achieved meaningful playability. Not only did the film make more on its second day of release than its first, but it also slipped a slim 18% in its second weekend.

So, it’s no surprise that the studio fast-tracked a sequel, with SMILE 2 arriving two years after the first. For a while, it looked like the sequel would outgross the original, though things have taken a turn in the final few weeks.

Let’s start by looking at awareness. As you can see below, the sequel (light yellow) is easily outpacing the first one (dark yellow). There’s no surprise there. SMILE 2 is now a known entity. It would be very shocking if the sequel had lower awareness than the original.

Things, however, go a bit south when looking at interest. Throughout most of its run, interest in SMILE 2 (light blue) outpaced SMILE (dark blue). With one fielding left to go, SMILE 2 is at 45% versus 49% for the original (it would eventually get to 54% on the day of release).

There’s the big difference. Whereas SMILE ended strong, the sequel is going out with a bit of a whimper. Despite some upward momentum in the last three days, interest for SMILE 2 has been trending down.

There are some external factors at play. SMILE 2 essentially has the weekend to itself. There are no other major studio releases arriving in theaters this weekend. That will help.

On the flip side, the film arrives on the heels of TERRIFIER 3, which is having a prolonged moment in the zeitgeist. As word-of-mouth continues to spread, horror fans may choose to see TERRIFIER 3 this weekend instead of SMILE 2. The holdover could be strong enough to shave a few million dollars off the opening number for SMILE 2.

Having said that, the film may make it up in the end. It’s the last major horror film before Halloween, and if people choose TERRIFIER this weekend, they may well make it to SMILE 2 next weekend. There’s room for both to succeed. Let’s hope that happens.