The Quorum

Can DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE Open Above $200M? It Certainly Looks Possible.

Can DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE open above $200M? At the moment, it certainly looks possible. Here’s how it stacks up.

For comps, we’re using the two biggest openings of the past three years. SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME debuted to $260M, DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS launched to $187M.

Let’s start by looking at awareness. At six weeks out, awareness for DEADPOOL (dark yellow) sits at 61%. That’s well above both SPIDER-MAN (light yellow) and DOCTOR (brown).

Looking at interest, DEADPOOL (dark blue) also has a nice advantage over SPIDER-MAN (light blue) and DOCTOR (black) at the same distance from release. In fact, at 66%, DEADPOOL has the highest interest of any film over the past three years at six weeks out. The next closest are BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER ($181M) and JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION ($145M), which both had 62%.

There are more reasons to be bullish on DEADPOOL. Unaided awareness for the film sits at 9%. BARBIE holds the record for the highest unaided of any film, reaching 32% by the time it opened. Guess where BARBIE was at six weeks out? Yup, 9%. No other movie had higher unaided at this point.

Add in three well-received posters, and DEADPOOL is looking very strong.

Returning to the original question, can DEADPOOL open above $200M? Well, it is an R-rated film, which will put some downward pressure on it. But at this moment in time, the tracking looks undeniable. So, The Quorum is forecasting an opening above $200.

But, the numbers have to continue to go up for that projection to remain above $200M. Notice how awareness and interest for both SPIDER-MAN and DOCTOR continued to rise as they approached release. DEADPOOL has to do the same. In other words, it’s not enough to have strong tracking today; there has to be follow-through.

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