The Quorum

Amazon and Netflix have two huge star-studded films on the horizon. How do the numbers look?

Based on star-power alone, BEING THE RECARDOS and DON’T LOOK UP are arguably the biggest releases of the year for Amazon and Netflix, respectively. There are 11 acting Oscar across the two films (three for RICARDOS and eight for LOOK). And, both directors — Aaron Sorkin and Adam McKay — each have a gold statue of their own. 

So, yeah, these two films are kind of a big deal. 

That, of course, begs the question, how are they tracking?

Looking at the numbers, RICARDOS has a six-point advantage in awareness. That’s perhaps not surprising given that the choice of casting Nicole Kidman has been a recurring story herehere , and here. If there’s no such thing as bad publicity, RICARDOS has good publicity in spades. At the very least, it has translated into a higher level of awareness than LOOK. 

On the interest side, both films are about even, though RICARDOS has a slight 5.8 to 5.7 advantage. While it would be great to see them cross 6.0, these are very nice interest scores. 

What’s interesting, however, is that Amazon and Netflix films tend to behave very differently on The Quorum. To illustrate the difference, let’s focus on just awareness.

Here you can see awareness for RICARDOS (brown) and three other star-driven Amazon releases. COMING 2 AMERICA (dark yellow) had the highest awareness of the bunch at 58%. The other two, WITHOUT REMORSE (light yellow) and THE TOMORROW WAR (tan) were in the 30’s, like RICARDOS.

Look what happens when we look at recent Netflix titles. Awareness for these films are much lower. BRUISED (dark yellow), for example, debuted an awareness of 21. Suddenly the numbers for LOOK (dark brown) look pretty good. This would suggest that LOOK is on pace to be a solid performer for Netflix. 

Chart, line chart

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There’s one other important thing to mention. We are comparing RICARDOS and LOOK to other titles at their date of release. Both RICARDOS and LOOK have more time to elevate those scores. That means RICARDOS may find itself much closer to COMING 2 AMERICA, and LOOK may end up significantly higher than the other Netflix titles charted above. 

Bottom line, we may never know how these films do at the end of the day. Yes, Netflix has made more streaming data available, but they don’t release theatrical numbers. Amazon has published box office data in the past, but they don’t release streaming data. 

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