A Closer Look: Lionsgate Has Eight Movies Opening Over The Next 11 Weeks.

When Warner Bros. released three films in the span of 11 days last December, it was a remarkable feat. Imagine the marketing, promotion and distribution teams juggling the near-simultaneous releases of WONKA (12/15), AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM (12/22, and THE COLOR PURPLE (12/25). The holiday season can be stressful for any studio –no, they don’t get to shut down the same way talent agencies do – but supporting three big-budget titles had to be incredibly stressful. 

Lionsgate, it seems, has decided to one-up Warner Bros. in the non-stop release derby by releasing nine films in 11 weeks, beginning with BORDERLANDS last weekend and the remaining eight in succession with almost no breaks. The studio has even decided to put MEGALOPOLIS up against NEVER LET GO on the same weekend. 

Did you think opening three movies was hard? Imagine the balancing act that is going on at Lionsgate right now.  

Unfortunately, like BORDERLANDS, many of these titles are rather long in the tooth. 1992 co-stars Ray Liotta, who passed away over two years ago. WHITE BIRD, having wrapped in 2021, has bounced around the schedule for the past few years. And, of course, there is Francis Ford Coppola’s MEGALOPOLIS, which finished shooting over a year ago and struggled to find a US distributor after its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival. 

That’s not to say these are all doomed to the same fate as BORDERLANDS. Snoop Dogg, riding a wave of popularity from the Olympics, has come on board as a producer of 1992, no doubt to help with promotion. WHITE BIRD, which comes from the same cinematic universe as the 2017 hit film WONDER, is an earnest and touching film—at least that was true of the version we saw over a year ago. And there is certainly a curiosity to see precisely what Coppola has conjured up with MEGALOPOLIS. Still, all three present an uphill challenge for the studio. 

With that said, which of the eight upcoming releases holds the greatest promise for Lionsgate? Let’s start by looking at awareness. At the moment, THE CROW has the highest awareness at 37%. That’s followed by FLIGHT RISK at 27%. Most of the others are at or below 20%. 

Over the past two years, 18 titles had awareness at or below 20% on the day of release. None opened above $10M, and only two reached $5M. That’s a scary statistic, but it’s also very misleading since none of the titles on this chart are on their day of release. There is plenty of time for Lionsgate to get these numbers up. 

If we expand the view, over the past two years, 65 films have opened with awareness of 30% or less. Of them, only seven opened above $10M, including two from Lionsgate: JESUS REVOLUTION ($16M) and PLANE ($10M). So, there is precedent. Still, seeing these films exceed 30% by opening would be nice.

Regarding interest, FLIGHT RISK is in the best shape at 47%.

Of the 46 films currently being tracked by The Quorum, FLIGHT ranks 12th in interest. As you can see below, at 47%, interest in FLIGHT is well above the average of 42% for the group at the same distance from release. 

This is going to be a taxing season for Lionsgate, with so many films competing for resources. And many of these films are still not tracking where we’d like them to be. At the same time, FLIGHT RISK is in a nice position to cap off this eight-film run (nine if you count BORDERLANDS) on a high note. Awareness is decent, and interest is strong. Hopefully, the studio will have a few wins between now and the end of October. As always, as a pro-theatrical service, The Quorum is rooting for Lionsgate to succeed.