Why MOANA 2 Is Important

At The Quorum, we rarely write about films after they open in theaters. In fact, we’ve only done it once before, when BARBIE debuted to $636M in 2022. But the enormous $221M five-day debut for MOANA 2 deserves some reflection.

In January, we noted that 2024 was poised to be a watershed year for animation. At the time, however, there was no way to know exactly how huge the genre would be. Between INSIDE OUT 2, DESPICABLE ME 4, KUNG FU PANDA 4, THE WILD ROBOT, THE GARFIELD MOVIE, TRANSFORMERS ONE, and now MOANA 2, animated films have brought in over $1.6B domestically.

And there’s still more to come with MUFASA: THE LION KING and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3. The genre could represent north of $2.2B.

If we rewind to early 2022, when much of the world had thawed from the COVID freeze, there was a widely held belief that the economics of family films had permanently changed thanks to two factors. First, films like MULAN, SOUL, RAYA AND THE DRAGON, LUCA, and TURNING RED went straight to streaming. Second, films that had a theatrical release were often available at home in a matter of weeks.

Not only did families get used to watching theatrical-quality animation at home, but they didn’t have to wait long for films to become available in their living rooms.

Things began to change in 2022 with MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU grossing $370M and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 2 taking in $191M. But those were the only two big wins.

In 2023, THE SUPER MARIO BROS. was a monster hit, but it was the only animated film in the year-end top 10. This year, however, upwards of five animated films could end the year in the top 10.

This matters for a few reasons. Animated films bring audiences of all ages to the theater. More importantly, they attract younger audiences. On the heels of the major disruption caused by the pandemic and industry strikes, getting younger audiences excited about going to the movies is vital to the long-term growth of theatrical. We want the next generation to embrace the urgency and shared cultural experience of seeing a movie when it opens and not waiting a month to watch it at home.

On top of that, with superhero films releasing their grip on the box office, the industry needs other types of films to pick up that slack. Many have looked to horror films as an evergreen genre, but it doesn’t scale the way family films do. Few horror films reach $100M at the box office because they don’t attract a broad cross-section of moviegoers. Millions of people love horror films, but just as many don’t.

As for MOANA 2, it represents a much-needed turn around for Disney on Thanksgiving. The studio first established a foothold on Turkey Day with FROZEN in 2013, but it was the four-year run of MOANA (2016), COCO (2017), RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET (2018), and FROZEN II (2019) that made Disney the studio to beat on Thanksgiving. But Disney’s hold on the holiday seemed tenuous after STRANGE WORLD and WISH misfired in 2022 and 2023. Calling MOANA 2 a return to form is an understatement. It’s more like an exclamation point declaring that all is right with the Mouse House.

MOANA 2 is more than just a win for Thanksgiving; it’s also an important chapter in Disney’s stunning reversal of fortune. Between 2015 and 2019, Disney was the dominant market share leader, thanks to Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar. On the heels of the pandemic, however, Disney struggled to find its footing. Sony led during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, while Universal was tops in 2022 and 2023.

Since 2020, the Disney holy trinity has shown some cracks. Fans haven’t seen a STAR WARS film in theaters since 2019, as the franchise has lived primarily on Disney+. Disney has fared better than DC in the current age of superhero fatigue with GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3, DOCTOR STRANGE AND THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS, BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER. But ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA, ETERNALS and THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER won’t be remembered as high-water marks in the MCU canon.

More importantly, Disney’s animation wing went cold. It wasn’t just STRANGE WORLD and WISH. LIGHTYEAR stumbled at the box office, while ELEMENTAL converted an unremarkable $30M opening into a somewhat decent $154M hit.

2024 has been a different story. With $637M at the box office, DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE became Disney’s biggest Marvel hit since AVENGERS: ENDGAME. INSIDE OUT 2 is Pixar’s highest grossing film of all time, and MOANA 2 just crushed all kinds of box office records. Sure, these are all known properties. But there are no guarantees at the box office, even for sequels. Just look at JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX.

Yes, MOANA 2 is a win for Disney. But more importantly, MOANA 2 and all the other animated hits of 2024 represent a win for the theatrical business that had come to believe that family films were permanently diminished by home viewership.