The Quorum

Scores are up for THE LITTLE MERMAID. Will it break the record for the largest Memorial Day opening?

On September 9th, there was an event so huge that it caused a ripple in the space-time continuum. The Earth fell off its axis. Perhaps you felt it. 

It was on this day that Disney released a teaser trailer for THE LITTLE MERMAID. To the dismay of a very vocal minority, in the upcoming live-action version of the animated classic, “Ariel” is…gasp…Black. Thankfully, those racist voices were drowned out by a widespread celebration of the film’s diversity and heartwarming videos like this

How can you not root for this film after seeing those reactions? 

Well, it turns out that the trailer was a massive win for the film. The scores for MERMAID have rocketed upward on The Quorum.

Just look at these awareness numbers. Prior to the trailer, awareness for the film was at an-already-high 49%. In the two weeks since it has climbed to 56%.

Let’s be clear, a seven-point gain in awareness is enormous. Most films see little to no bump from a teaser. A three or four-point lift would be considered a success. An increase of this size is truly remarkable. 

Now, eight months before release, awareness for MERMAID ranks 4th among all the films currently being tracked by The Quorum.

Perhaps it’s not surprising that awareness is up in light of the widespread media coverage of the trailer. But what about interest? More importantly, did interest go up as well?

Here’s the great news. The interest score for MERMAID climbed from 5.8 to 6.0, where it now ranks 11th among all films being tracked by The Quorum. 

Ok, so what does this all mean? A few things. 

MERMAID is scheduled to open on Memorial Day weekend next year. You may recall that TOP GUN: MAVERICK opened on that same weekend this year, and with a $127M debut, it fell just shy of breaking the record for the largest Memorial Day opening. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END still holds the record at $128M. Based on these early numbers, it’s not beyond reason to think MERMAID could top PIRATES.

It’s significant for another reason as well. Guess what opens the weekend after MERMAID? None other than SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE, which will undoubtedly be enormous. In other words, that late May, early June corridor next year looks like a box office bonanza. 

Oh, it’s also a win for all those young kids who delighted in seeing an “Ariel” that looks like them. 

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