Last year, AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER dominated the holiday season. This year, several big titles will be vying for your holiday dollars. Currently, there are eight wide releases scheduled for the back half of December, and that doesn’t include platforms that hope to expand during the holidays.
Of the eight, FERRARI (December 25th, Neon) is the last to be added to The Quorum. How do the numbers look?
FERRARI belongs to the “Medium” group, meaning it is expected to have a budget between $50M and $100M. Other films in the group include AMSTERDAM, CREED III, and HOUSE OF GUCCI.
The average opening weekend for films in this group is $21.4M. What are the chances that FERRARI will match or top the group average?
First of all, it’s important to note that December opening weekends are always distorted, especially those released on Christmas Day. That’s because Christmas Day falls on a different day each year. This year it’s a Monday. That means FERRARI’s “opening weekend” will technically be on December 29th – 31st. What a mess.
Therefore, we are estimating how FERRARI would perform on a non-holiday weekend. Looking at the tracking, you can see that FERRARI is trailing the average scores for other films from the group at the same distance from release.
For example, the average Medium title has 20% awareness at the same distance from release. FERRARI is just below that at 17%. As shown below, FERRARI is trailing the group average in all metrics. This would suggest that, as of now, on a typical non-holiday weekend, we would expect FERRARI to open below the group average of $21.4M.