This week, CANDYMAN is the only wide release.
The original 1992 CANDYMAN did decent business bringing in $26M on a $9M budget. It spawned several follow-ups, though the version opening tomorrow is a direct sequel to the 1992 film.
The new one has three things going for it. First, it’s co-written and produced by modern horror maestro Jordan Peele. He has a very loyal fanbase that will show up for anything with his name attached to it. Second, it’s getting terrific reviews, which will expand the audience beyond just Peele fans. And, third, it is the only new release. It’s a very unsaturated market. In terms of holdovers, the only competition is FREE GUY. PAW PATROL may stick around, but it’s an entirely different audience.
The popular opinion is that CANDYMAN is likely to open in the high teens, maybe the low $ ’20s. Let’s see if The Quorum numbers support that.
We’re going to compare CANDYMAN to three recent horror comps:
- A QUIET PLACE PART II ($48M)
- THE CONJURING: THE DEVIL MADE ME DO IT ($24M)
- SPIRAL ($9)
QUIET is the gold standard for horror at the moment. No one expects CANDYMAN to match or even come close to the $48M opening for QUIET.
SPIRAL is on the low side. We would all be surprised if CANDYMAN came in below $10. CONJURING may be the best comp; however, that was a day-and-date release that likely would have done more had it been straight theatrical.
When we look at awareness, CANDYMAN ends its run at 39, just a hair behind CONJURING and well below the 45 for QUIET. Based on this metric, an opening above $20M seems within reach.
Things get more complicated when we look at interest. Again, QUIET easily tops the comps with a huge 6.1 interest score. SPIRAL and CONJURING were both at 5.3 at opening. But CANDYMAN is easily the lowest at 4.7. And, it was trending down in the final week before release.
What does this all mean? Based on awareness, CANDYMAN might be looking at an opening north of $20M. Also adding to the upside is the fact that it’s the only new wide release this week. But, the soft interest numbers will put downward pressure on the film. So, in the end, that industry forecast in the high teens doesn’t seem so far off.