With KING RICHARD opening November 19th and HOUSE OF GUCCI arriving five days later, we are about to have one of the more exciting showdowns. Both are based on very powerful families, and both target an adult audience. So, which one will come out on top?
Before we jump into the numbers, let’s take a closer look at how these two films are being released.
RICHARD is being released on Friday, November 19th, by Warner Bros., which means it will be available on HBO Max on the same day it hits theaters (thankfully, that policy is about to end!). That will put some downward pressure on the box office.
GUCCI is being released exclusively in theaters by United Artists. It opens on Wednesday, November 24th – the day before Thanksgiving. Unlike RICHARD, it will have a five-day holiday opening weekend.
In light of these variables, it will become tough to make comparisons between the two, but that doesn’t mean we won’t try. We can compare the Friday to Sunday numbers for both as a decent proxy. RICHARD will be hampered by it being available on a streamer, while GUCCI will be hampered by some of its box office going to the Wednesday and Thursday of its long weekend. But, let’s not get in the weeds.
At the moment, momentum is on the side of RICHARD. Looking at awareness, RICHARD is very much on the rise. As you can see by the grey bars, Warner Bros. has released two trailers for the film. Both resulted in huge gains in awareness. As we know that it is a very strong indicator of success.
When we layer in GUCCI (light yellow) and look at the two films based on distance from release (X-axis), we can see that RICHARD (dark yellow) was trailing GUCCI for most of the past 400 days. It was just in the past few days that the tennis film passed the fashion flick. Awareness for RICHARD now sits at 36 versus 32 for GUCCI.
It’s a similar story on the interest side. Throughout its run, interest for RICHARD (light blue) was lower than GUCCI (dark blue). But interest for RICHARD has climbed in tandem with the rise in awareness. That’s always a good sign. Also, notice that interest for GUCCI hasn’t moved all that much over the past 400 days. That’s not a good sign.
Perhaps the strongest indicator of success is the fact that Warner Bros. has already released stellar reviews for RICHARD, while no reviews for GUCCI have surfaced. With a few weeks before release, RICHARD has momentum. Can GUCCI catch up?